Mamdani Wins,

But one does not count a victory until the term is over

Zohran Mamdani is Mayor of New York City and started his speech with a reference to Eugene Debs, while on the same day, people find a quote where Bernie Sanders says, “I applaud the Cheneys for their courage in defending democracy” in 2024. Given where left populists has been headed, and given the failures of progressives mayors historically: There is something sour in the the otherwise victorious note.

There are realities at hand, the bond market has broken the backs of most progressive mayors attempts to run a polis like a left Bonaparte. Yet, Mamdani’s win seems like a victory even to my cynical eyes and ears. While your enemies’ anger doesn’t make for good politics in and of itself, the right people hate Zohran Mamdani. Furthermore, unlike a lot of the progressives who had gotten Bernie Sanders or Bill DiBlasio’s blessing or the blessed (or dreaded if you are me) phone call from Barack Obama, Mamdani is a DSA member and open socialist. Sure, it is not MY socialism precisely, but at least, I am not wasting capital writing about someone who doesn’t even identify with my movement in order to push back against the “centrist wokes” or whatever left populists convince themselves are under their beds.

There are some reality checks here: even in a city with as strong an executive as NYC, you need legislative support and some backing in the councils. To get that Mamdani will have to play nice with DiBlasio largely YIMBY coalition, and NYC has a fordist core which many other cities don’t have, as well as a middle class left that has been declining relative to the ultra-rich there but still is largely privileged in social goods compared to the rest of the country. The Democratic Socialists of America have produced a mayor before, and Dickens’ tenure more or less washed on the shores of the police union and limits of mayor’s office. Furthermore, the temptation for the DSA will be to pretend that NY is America, which it most assuredly is no more than London is the UK or Paris is all of Europe.

Yet, I still think this victory is a sign of change with one major caveat: the last waves of left populism from the end of the new left and self-liquidation of new populist movement has mostly benefited the center of the Democratic party. But there is something strange here, despite Mamdani last few months barely being to the left of Bill DiBlasio, the Democratic center has not seen him as a loci of recuperation. In fact, the former(?) neo-conservatives at the Bulwark have been more open to Mamdani than the Clinton establishment or the bulk of the national Democrats. Furthermore, even very important left-wing mayors have been harder to recuperate for the national parties, although is often because their policy limits make them somewhat ineffective executives when faced with taxation limits and bond markets.

So I have a trust but verify attitude towards Mamdani despite my increasingly sour notes on left populism, which shows more and more signs of being a kind of establishment of itself, with millions in consulting for progressives and massive mistakes such as sticking with Biden and Harris for too long and endorsing people who just appeared working class like John Fetterman. As I said on X, I never expected socialism in one city, so I won’t be crushed if Mamdani is just a competent progressive who is more charismatic than DiBlasio. I don’t put all my hopes in one basket, so I also don’t have Bonapartist expectations from a mayor. Mamdani’s victory will be historic, but how history will cut should not be called too prematurely.

As I said to New Yorkers as if my opinion on a place where I cannot vote matters, you did this. This is your victory. More power to you. Now keep everyone honest and build power beyond individuals. Good luck, sincerely. I won’t call the game when it is just started, even if I am skeptical about this left populism within the Democrats. Yes, I think most left populist policies are insufficiently thought out, often from a series of bad binary debates on the left (Degrowth/growth, electoral/anti-electoral, YIMBY/rent control, etc). Yes, I think most socialist electoral work should be legislative and largely (but tactically) obstructionist unless such a party had a clear popular mandate or had rested power with massive popular support.

The future has to be built, and the odds are rarely in one’s favor, but the idea that failure will radicalize everyone further left seems just as much a pipedream. Furthermore, this is New York’s victory, and I live in Utah, and the nationalization of everything serves very few interests politically.

So here’s to Mamdani, and to better future for New York, if, of course, both the mayor and the voters can keep it.